Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forli · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Forli 1-1 Livorno
Original prediction
Forli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.3% | 37.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.0% | 29.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 33.7% | 33.8% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Forli
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Forli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ForliLDDDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
LivornoLWDWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ForliLivorno
54.2Attack41.7
50.0Defence62.5
41.7Form58.3
50.0Power57.3
1.27xG1.16