Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forge · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Forge are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while York 9 FC are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Forge hold a 36.8-point power-rating edge (71.8 v 35.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 80.6% in the Canadian Premier League, while Forge holds the strongest overall chance at 81% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Forge
Probability
80.6%
Model confidence
80.6%
Forge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80