Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forge · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Forge are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while York 9 FC are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Forge hold a 52.9-point power-rating edge (76.6 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 59.8% in the Canadian Championship, while Forge holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Forge
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
Forge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40