Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forge · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Forge are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Valour are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Forge hold a 30.9-point power-rating edge (71.8 v 40.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.9% in the Canadian Premier League, while Forge holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Forge
Probability
64.9%
Model confidence
64.9%
Forge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80