Forfar Athleticvs
Elgin City
COMPLETEDScotland · League Two · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elgin City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Forfar Athletic 1-2 Elgin City
Original prediction
Elgin City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.28 | 27.8% | 27.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.3% | 26.9% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 45.9% | 45.6% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Elgin City
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Elgin City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80