GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/5/2023, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Forest Green · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Forest Green are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Shrewsbury are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Forest Green hold a 9.0-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 43.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Forest Green holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Forest Green

Probability

45.4%

Model confidence

45.4%

Forest Green has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Forest GreenWDLLW

GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ShrewsburyLWLWL

GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Forest GreenShrewsbury
33.3Attack33.3
83.3Defence44.4
41.7Form44.4
52.8Power43.8
1.63xG1.13
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