GGOALVIO

England · League Cup · 8/8/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portsmouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Forest Green are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Portsmouth are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Portsmouth hold a 52.7-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.8% in the League Cup, while Portsmouth holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portsmouth

Probability

42.8%

Model confidence

42.8%

Portsmouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Forest GreenLWWLW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PortsmouthDLLWW

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Forest GreenPortsmouth
33.3Attack66.7
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
15.3Power68.0
1.21xG1.72
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