GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 12/5/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Oxford United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Forest Green are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Oxford United are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Oxford United hold a 9.6-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 62.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Oxford United holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Oxford United

Probability

39.3%

Model confidence

39.3%

Oxford United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Forest GreenLDDLD

GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Oxford UnitedDLWWW

GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Forest GreenOxford United
33.3Attack60.0
83.3Defence73.3
41.7Form60.0
52.8Power62.4
1.19xG1.43
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