Forest Greenvs
Chesham United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forest Green · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Forest Green 5-0 Chesham United
Original prediction
Forest Green
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 October 2026 at 10:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 76.4% | 44.1% | -32.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.87 | 15.4% | 23.5% | 8.1 pts |
| Away | 11.09 | 8.2% | 32.4% | 24.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Forest Green
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Forest Green has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 11 · GA 14 · avg 2.20/2.80