2. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2
Sunday, 28 June 2026Last updated 12:12
Follo

Follo

Home
L
02
Full time
Levanger

Levanger

Away
W
Langhus kunstgress
GoalVio prediction
64% confidence
Levanger(64%)
Most likely exact score0-2
Prediction correct— Result: Levanger
Win probability
Follo
16%
Draw
20%
Levanger
64%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Follo
9
Levanger
73
Defence
Follo
27
Levanger
91
Momentum
Follo
0
Levanger
100
Danger (xG)
Follo
0.00
Levanger
1.80
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 0.79 xG for Follo and 2.08 xG for Levanger. Follo's projected xG of 0.79 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-2 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Levanger will score, but Follo's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Levanger's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.87 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-2 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Follo's Defensive Stability (27) and Levanger's (91) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Follo)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Levanger)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Follo)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Levanger)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FolloFollo
LL
LevangerLevanger
WW

Probability breakdown

64% confidence
Follo16%
Draw20%
Levanger64%

Levanger leads with 64% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Levanger Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-2

Follo host Levanger in 2. Division - Group 2. Follo have recorded LLLLLD in recent matches while Levanger arrive with a run of LWWWWW. These sides have met 3 times recently, averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.08 expected goals for Levanger against 0.79 for Follo — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Levanger have kept 5 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 📈 Recent Form Levanger arrive in better recent form — 5 wins from 10 matches (LWWWWW) against Follo's 0. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Levanger are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.08 projected against 0.79 for Follo. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.29 is the clearest signal in the model that Levanger are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Levanger are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Follo 0Draws 01 Levanger
Avg goals: 2.0
28 Jun 2026
Follo
L02
Levanger

Recent form

Follo

Follo

L
vs Levanger
28 Jun 2026
02
L
vs Lørenskog
16 May 2026
01
Levanger

Levanger

W
@ Follo
28 Jun 2026
20
W
vs Trygg/Lade
16 May 2026
30

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Follo vs Levanger?

GoalVio's model predicts Levanger to win with 64% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Follo vs Levanger?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-2.

Will both teams score in Follo vs Levanger?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Follo vs Levanger?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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