Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Folgore · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Folgore are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Tre Fiori are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Folgore hold an 18.3-point power-rating edge (60.3 v 41.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.6% in the Coppa Titano, while Folgore holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Folgore
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Folgore has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00