Folgorevs
San Marino Academy
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Folgore · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Folgore 2-0 San Marino Academy
Original prediction
Folgore
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 72.5% | 58.2% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 18.2% | 23.0% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 9.61 | 9.3% | 18.8% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Folgore
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Folgore has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40