Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Murata · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Folgore 5-0 Murata
Original prediction
Murata
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 84.1% | 37.7% | -46.5 pts |
| Draw | 8.48 | 10.7% | 22.3% | 11.6 pts |
| Away | 17.59 | 5.2% | 40.0% | 34.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
34.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Murata
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Murata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FolgoreLWWWD
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MurataLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FolgoreMurata
46.5Attack60.0
61.6Defence73.3
43.4Form62.9
50.1Power64.2
0.78xG1.32