Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Murata · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Folgore are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Murata are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 3.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Murata hold a 14.0-point power-rating edge (50.1 v 64.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.0% in the Campionato, while Murata holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Murata
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
15.0%
Murata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60