Folgore Caratesevs
Giana Erminio
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Folgore Caratese · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Folgore Caratese 1-1 Giana Erminio
Original prediction
Folgore Caratese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.7% | 39.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.6% | 29.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.7% | 30.9% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Folgore Caratese
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Folgore Caratese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20