Folgore Caratesevs
Desenzano Calvina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/3/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Folgore Caratese · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Folgore Caratese 1-2 Desenzano Calvina
Original prediction
Folgore Caratese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.4% | 40.1% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.9% | 29.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 26.7% | 30.8% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Folgore Caratese
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Folgore Caratese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00