Folgore Caratesevs
Alcione
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Folgore Caratese 0-0 Alcione, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Folgore Caratese 2-3 Alcione
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.7% | 37.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.91 | 31.0% | 31.8% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 32.4% | 30.9% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Projected Score
Folgore Caratese 0–0 Alcione
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.8%
Model confidence
37.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Folgore CarateseLDLDD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AlcioneDDWLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Folgore CarateseAlcione
66.7Attack28.9
33.3Defence67.5
33.3Form41.2
45.3Power47.9
0.94xG0.73