Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Foggia 0-0 Sorrento, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Foggia 2-0 Sorrento
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.7% | 36.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.4% | 32.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 31.9% | 31.3% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Projected Score
Foggia 0–0 Sorrento
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.0%
Model confidence
36.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FoggiaLDLLD
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SorrentoLWWWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FoggiaSorrento
35.1Attack34.2
61.4Defence58.8
42.1Form42.1
47.8Power46.8
0.93xG0.72