Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Foggia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Foggia are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Sorrento are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Foggia hold a 53.5-point power-rating edge (60.5 v 7.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.2% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Foggia holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Foggia
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Foggia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60