Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Potenza · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Foggia 1-3 Potenza
Original prediction
Potenza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.1% | 34.6% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.9% | 29.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 32.0% | 36.0% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Potenza
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Potenza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FoggiaWWLDL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PotenzaWWWDL
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FoggiaPotenza
50.0Attack100.0
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power88.7
1.24xG1.47