Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cavese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Foggia 1-0 Cavese
Original prediction
Cavese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.8% | 30.8% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.7% | 27.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.5% | 42.1% | 13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Cavese
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Cavese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FoggiaLLWWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CaveseWDWWL
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FoggiaCavese
33.3Attack74.1
56.7Defence48.1
36.7Form55.6
44.2Power59.7
1.05xG1.77