Fluminensevs
Atletico Paranaense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 3/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Fluminense are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Atletico Paranaense are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.5% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60