GGOALVIO

Brazil · Serie A · 4/22/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Fluminense are 4W-0D-0L in their last 4 (WWWW), averaging 2.50 scored and 0.25 conceded, while Atletico Paranaense are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (WWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.5% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

38.5%

Model confidence

38.5%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FluminenseWWWW

GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.50/0.25

BTTS 1/4O2.5 3/4
Atletico ParanaenseWWLD

GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.50

BTTS 1/4O2.5 1/4
FluminenseAtletico Paranaense
49.3Attack44.9
59.4Defence71.0
55.1Form59.4
57.2Power60.0
0.91xG1.00
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