Florianavs
Zabbar St. Patrick
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/26/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floriana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Floriana 1-2 Zabbar St. Patrick
Original prediction
Floriana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 63.7% | 67.2% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 21.8% | 18.7% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 6.24 | 14.5% | 14.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Floriana
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
Floriana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60