Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floriana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Floriana 3-3 Mosta
Original prediction
Floriana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 59.1% | 55.0% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.8% | 23.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.99 | 18.2% | 21.9% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Floriana
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Floriana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlorianaDWLLW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MostaDDLDW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
FlorianaMosta
81.0Attack47.6
61.9Defence61.9
66.7Form57.1
67.9Power57.9
1.81xG1.02