Florianavs
Marsaxlokk
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 9/12/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floriana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Floriana 2-5 Marsaxlokk
Original prediction
Floriana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.2% | 45.9% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.8% | 27.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.0% | 26.5% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Floriana
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Floriana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80