Florianavs
Gzira United
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 9/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floriana · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Floriana 4-1 Gzira United
Original prediction
Floriana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.5% | 58.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.6% | 23.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 5.69 | 15.9% | 18.3% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Floriana
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Floriana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00