Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floriana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Floriana 1-1 Balzan FC
Original prediction
Floriana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.2% | 49.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 25.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 21.6% | 24.9% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Floriana
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Floriana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlorianaWLLWD
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Balzan FCDDWWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FlorianaBalzan FC
88.9Attack50.0
61.1Defence66.7
72.2Form50.0
71.7Power56.7
1.67xG1.06