Florgradevs
Portimonense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portimonense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Florgrade 1-2 Portimonense
Original prediction
Portimonense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.57 | 16.3% | 31.7% | 15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 23.9% | 26.8% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 59.8% | 41.5% | -18.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Portimonense
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Portimonense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20