Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floresta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Floresta 0-1 Maringá
Original prediction
Floresta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 31.3% | 40.2% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.69 | 33.8% | 27.8% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.9% | 32.0% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Floresta
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Floresta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlorestaWWWLD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MaringáWWDLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FlorestaMaringá
38.6Attack56.1
64.9Defence47.4
52.6Form52.6
54.7Power52.8
1.31xG1.07