Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floresta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Floresta 0-0 Ituano, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Floresta 2-0 Ituano
Original prediction
Floresta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.3% | 41.8% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.9% | 32.0% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.15 | 21.8% | 26.2% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Projected Score
Floresta 0–0 Ituano
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Floresta
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Floresta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlorestaWWLDD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ItuanoLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
FlorestaItuano
37.0Attack33.3
63.0Defence64.8
50.0Form40.7
52.9Power47.7
0.85xG0.67