Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Meux · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Flénu 1-4 Meux
Original prediction
Meux
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 32.8% | 29.7% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.5% | 26.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 39.7% | 43.7% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Meux
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Meux has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FlénuDLLLW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
MeuxWWDDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FlénuMeux
33.3Attack33.3
22.2Defence88.9
11.1Form77.8
25.8Power70.7
1.13xG1.68