Flint Town Unitedvs
Colwyn Bay
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colwyn Bay · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Flint Town United 0-1 Colwyn Bay
Original prediction
Colwyn Bay
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.62 | 19.6% | 16.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.6% | 20.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 56.9% | 62.3% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Colwyn Bay
Probability
62.3%
Model confidence
62.3%
Colwyn Bay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80