Fleury 91vs
Thionville Lusitanos
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/19/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fleury 91 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fleury 91 1-1 Thionville Lusitanos
Original prediction
Fleury 91
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.9% | 44.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.7% | 25.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.4% | 30.9% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.38 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Fleury 91
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Fleury 91 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00