Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caen · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fleury 91 3-2 Caen
Original prediction
Caen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 37.0% | 33.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 29.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 36.2% | 37.3% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Caen
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Caen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Fleury 91LDWWL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
CaenWLWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Fleury 91Caen
50.0Attack62.5
58.3Defence62.5
37.5Form62.5
48.1Power62.5
1.17xG1.43