Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fleury 91 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fleury 91 1-0 Aubagne, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fleury 91 1-2 Aubagne
Original prediction
Fleury 91
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 46.7% | 43.6% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.9% | 29.5% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.3% | 26.8% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Projected Score
Fleury 91 1–0 Aubagne
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Fleury 91
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Fleury 91 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Fleury 91DWWLL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AubagneLLDWL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Fleury 91Aubagne
52.4Attack14.3
61.9Defence61.9
42.9Form19.0
51.6Power33.9
1.37xG0.64