3. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4
Saturday, 1 August 202612:00Updated today
Flekkerøy

Flekkerøy

Home
WW
vs
12:00
Haugesund II

Haugesund II

Away
D
Cemo Arena
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Flekkerøy(43%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Flekkerøy
43%
Draw
27%
Haugesund II
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Flekkerøy
99
Haugesund II
73
Defence
Flekkerøy
91
Haugesund II
27
Momentum
Flekkerøy
100
Haugesund II
33
Danger (xG)
Flekkerøy
3.60
Haugesund II
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 3.62 xG for Flekkerøy and 1.70 xG for Haugesund II — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 3-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Flekkerøy holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 5.32 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 3-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 4 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Flekkerøy's Attack Score (99) vs Haugesund II's Defensive Stability (27) and Haugesund II's attack (73) vs Flekkerøy's defence (91) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Flekkerøy)
3.60
avg per match
xG for (Haugesund II)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Flekkerøy)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Haugesund II)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FlekkerøyFlekkerøy
WW
Haugesund IIHaugesund II
D

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Flekkerøy43%
Draw27%
Haugesund II30%

Flekkerøy leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Flekkerøy Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Flekkerøy host Haugesund II in 3. Division - Girone 4. Flekkerøy have recorded WWWLWL in recent matches while Haugesund II arrive with a run of WLLWLD.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 3.62 expected goals for Flekkerøy against 1.70 for Haugesund II — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Flekkerøy have kept 3 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Flekkerøy's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 62% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Flekkerøy are generating a dominant xG advantage — 3.62 projected against 1.70 for Haugesund II. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.92 is the clearest signal in the model that Flekkerøy are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Flekkerøy's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Haugesund II defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Flekkerøy fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Flekkerøy have been conceding 2.26 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Flekkerøy

Flekkerøy

W
@ Våg
16 May 2026
20
W
vs Stabæk II
11 May 2026
60
Haugesund II

Haugesund II

D
@ Hinna
14 May 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Flekkerøy vs Haugesund II?

GoalVio's model predicts Flekkerøy to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Flekkerøy vs Haugesund II?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Flekkerøy vs Haugesund II?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Flekkerøy vs Haugesund II?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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