Serie ASerie A
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:07
Flamengo

Flamengo

Home
W
11
Full time
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

Away
LD
GoalVio prediction
48% confidence
Flamengo(48%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Flamengo
48%
Draw
26%
Sao Paulo
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Flamengo
99
Sao Paulo
18
Defence
Flamengo
27
Sao Paulo
66
Momentum
Flamengo
100
Sao Paulo
17
Danger (xG)
Flamengo
3.60
Sao Paulo
0.45
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Flamengo)
3.60
avg per match
xG for (Sao Paulo)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Flamengo)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Sao Paulo)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FlamengoFlamengo
WL
Sao PauloSao Paulo
LD

Probability breakdown

48% confidence
Flamengo48%
Draw26%
Sao Paulo26%

Flamengo leads with 48% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Flamengo head into this in Serie A fixture in mixed form (W), while Sao Paulo arrive in mixed form (LD). Flamengo have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Sao Paulo over 2 games.

The model rates Flamengo's attack at 99/100 against a 66/100 Sao Paulo defence, and Sao Paulo's attack at 18/100 against a 27/100 Flamengo backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Flamengo have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 4.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home. Sao Paulo have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Flamengo and Sao Paulo in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Flamengo to win with 48% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Flamengo 4821%, Draw 2621%, Sao Paulo 2558%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

Flamengo

Flamengo

W
vs Olimpia
18 Jul 2026
42
L
@ Vitoria
15 May 2026
02
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

L
@ Fluminense
16 May 2026
12
D
@ Juventude
13 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

GoalVio's model predicts Flamengo to win with 48% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Flamengo vs Sao Paulo?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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