Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Flamengo are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Flamengo hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (66.0 v 63.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 28.4% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
28.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40