Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flamengo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Flamengo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 0W-5D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Flamengo hold a 14.8-point power-rating edge (66.2 v 51.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Serie A, while Flamengo holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Flamengo
Probability
65.9%
Model confidence
13.9%
Flamengo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80