FK Zalgiris Vilniusvs
Suduva Marijampole
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 10/10/2026, 11:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Suduva Marijampole · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4-0 Suduva Marijampole
Original prediction
Suduva Marijampole
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.2% | 31.6% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.7% | 28.8% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.1% | 39.6% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Suduva Marijampole
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Suduva Marijampole has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40