FK Zalgiris Vilniusvs
Kauno Žalgiris
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 9/16/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kauno Žalgiris · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3-2 Kauno Žalgiris
Original prediction
Kauno Žalgiris
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.1% | 21.8% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.6% | 25.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 45.3% | 52.9% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Kauno Žalgiris
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Kauno Žalgiris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20