FK Zalgiris Vilniusvs
Šiauliai
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 9/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Šiauliai
Original prediction
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 72.9% | 75.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.39 | 16.7% | 15.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 8.63 | 10.4% | 8.8% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Probability
75.3%
Model confidence
75.3%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00