FK Zalgiris Vilniusvs
Hegelmann Litauen
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4-1 Hegelmann Litauen
Original prediction
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 66.5% | 66.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 19.8% | 20.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 6.49 | 13.8% | 13.1% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Probability
66.9%
Model confidence
66.9%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40