FK Tobol Kostanayvs
FC Astana
COMPLETEDKazakhstan · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Astana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Tobol Kostanay 2-1 FC Astana
Original prediction
FC Astana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.1% | 26.4% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.4% | 26.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.5% | 46.8% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
FC Astana
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
FC Astana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80