FK Spartak Tambovvs
Metallurg Lipetsk
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 8/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Spartak Tambov · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Spartak Tambov 3-1 Metallurg Lipetsk
Original prediction
FK Spartak Tambov
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.9% | 49.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 21.7% | 25.0% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
FK Spartak Tambov
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
FK Spartak Tambov has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80