GGOALVIO

Russia · First League · 7/16/2023, 3:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

FK Neftekhimik are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Volgar Astrakhan are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Volgar Astrakhan hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (35.1 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.2% in the First League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

41.2%

Model confidence

41.2%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FK NeftekhimikLLWWL

GF 11 · GA 14 · avg 2.20/2.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Volgar AstrakhanLLLWW

GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FK NeftekhimikVolgar Astrakhan
16.7Attack28.4
44.4Defence56.9
33.3Form33.3
35.1Power41.8
0.89xG0.81
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