FK Liepajavs
Riga
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 8/31/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Liepaja 3-2 Riga
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.72 | 13.5% | 11.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.67 | 19.4% | 16.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.35 | 67.1% | 72.0% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
72.0%
Model confidence
72.0%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FK LiepajaLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
RigaWDDWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FK LiepajaRiga
44.4Attack100.0
51.9Defence69.2
45.7Form83.3
48.3Power82.0
0.80xG2.40