VirsligaVirsliga
Tuesday, 30 June 2026Last updated 10:09
FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja

Home
WW
40
Full time
Ogre United

Ogre United

Away
W
Daugavas stadions
GoalVio prediction
53% confidence
FK Liepaja(53%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: FK Liepaja
Win probability
FK Liepaja
53%
Draw
23%
Ogre United
25%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
FK Liepaja
54
Ogre United
99
Defence
FK Liepaja
82
Ogre United
27
Momentum
FK Liepaja
100
Ogre United
100
Danger (xG)
FK Liepaja
1.35
Ogre United
3.60
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (FK Liepaja)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Ogre United)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (FK Liepaja)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Ogre United)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FK LiepajaFK Liepaja
WWWLW
Ogre UnitedOgre United
WLWLL

Probability breakdown

53% confidence
FK Liepaja53%
Draw23%
Ogre United25%

FK Liepaja leads with 53% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

FK Liepaja head into this in Virsliga fixture at Daugavas stadions in decent form (WW), while Ogre United arrive in mixed form (W). FK Liepaja have a 100% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 100% for Ogre United over 1 games.

The model rates FK Liepaja's attack at 54/100 against a 27/100 Ogre United defence, and Ogre United's attack at 99/100 against a 82/100 FK Liepaja backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

FK Liepaja have won 3 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game at home. Ogre United have won 1 of their last 4 away fixtures, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 3.8 conceded per away game.

FK Liepaja have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 2 of the last 2 encounters, averaging 4.5 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects FK Liepaja to win with 53% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: FK Liepaja 5290%, Draw 2270%, Ogre United 2450%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

FK Liepaja 2Draws 00 Ogre United
Avg goals: 4.5BTTS in 1/2
30 Jun 2026
FK Liepaja
W40
Ogre United
12 May 2026
FK Liepaja
W41
Ogre United

Recent form

FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja

W
@ Dečić
15 Jul 2026
21
W
vs Dečić
9 Jul 2026
10
W
vs Ogre United
30 Jun 2026
40
L
vs Rīgas FS
26 Jun 2026
02
W
vs BFC Daugavpils
17 May 2026
10
Ogre United

Ogre United

W
@ Valmiera / BSS
12 Jul 2026
42
L
@ FK Liepaja
30 Jun 2026
04
W
vs Tukums
26 Jun 2026
32
L
@ Rīgas FS
22 Jun 2026
06
L
@ Super Nova
16 May 2026
13

Frequently asked questions

Who will win FK Liepaja vs Ogre United?

GoalVio's model predicts FK Liepaja to win with 53% confidence.

What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs Ogre United?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in FK Liepaja vs Ogre United?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in FK Liepaja vs Ogre United?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more