FK Liepajavs
FS Jelgava
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Liepaja · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FK Liepaja 3-0 FS Jelgava
Original prediction
FK Liepaja
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.8% | 55.2% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.3% | 23.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 22.9% | 21.3% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
FK Liepaja
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
FK Liepaja has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40