Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nyköping · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fittja 4-1 Nyköping
Original prediction
Nyköping
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.76 | 24.1% | 21.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 21.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.2% | 56.3% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Nyköping
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Nyköping has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FittjaLLLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NyköpingWDWLW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FittjaNyköping
49.3Attack57.3
46.7Defence68.0
44.0Form61.3
48.5Power61.9
1.00xG1.79